CYCLONE TAUKTAE UPDATE

 

Yesterday a low pressure brewed up in waters of Southeast Arabian Sea, near Lakshadweep islands. It has further intensified into a Well Marked Low Pressure today's morning and likely to convert into deep depression by tomorrow's morning. Between 15th morning- 16th noon, rapid intensification of the system is likely due to favourable MJO conditions. System will turn into a cyclone further. Currently it is at "Depression" stage.

"Tauktae" name is given by Myanmar, which in local means 'gecko' (a lizard). It may develop into a severe category cyclone as well.

PATH

The two major ways in which system is likely to follow the track:-

WML this morning and possible paths

Forecast track by IMD

After intensifying into a cyclonic storm, Tauktae is likely to move parallel along the west coast in N/NW direction.

The landfall of the cyclone is still unclear. But most of the models using these two tracks:-

1. Hitting Gujarat coast and then recurving into NE direction.

2. Hitting Pakistan coast and then moving NE via Pakistan into Himalayas.

So it can be concluded that the landfall is likely to remain between Gujarat coast and Karachi region.

⚠️ Althogh models keep puzzling, but Gujarat coastline shall be on ALERT as a precautionary measure.

The models further showing upward pull towards Himalayas after landfall. It is so because of the good flow of Jet streams over Northern India.

AREAS UNDER MAJOR IMPACT

▶️ Lakshadweep Islands

▶️ Kerela

▶️ Ghat areas of Tamil Nadu

▶️ Coastal Karnataka and ghat regions.

▶️ Goa

▶️ South Konkan

▶️ Gujarat

IMPACT

Lakshadweep Islands, Kerela and Tamil Nadu

14- 17 MAY

Overcast. Heavy- very heavy rains likely over these places, (areas near to ghats of TN) some places recording extremely heavy rain accumulation as well. Wind speed 50-70 kmph, gusting upto 85 kmph possible over coastal areas. Flooding rains and waterlogging possible at various low lying places.

Karnataka, Goa, South Konkan

15-17 MAY

Mostly moderate to heavy rains/thunderstorms with generally cloudy weather. Isolated places may see very heavy spell of rains. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely along & off Kerala coast on 14th May and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off Kerala - Karnataka coasts on 15th and becoming gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph on 16th May. 

Strong winds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely along & off south Maharashtra & Goa.

⚠️ Both the states of Kerela and Karnataka (coastline and ghats) have potential to record extremely severe rainfall as well!

Maharashtra (North Konkan)

16-18 MAY

Strong winds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 70 kmph predicted over North Konkan region. Mostly cloudy with light to moderate showers.

Pune, Satara, Nashik and adjoining places near to ghats mainly to receive light showers. Intense thunderstorms cant be ruled out!

#MumbaiRains: Cyclone will be 300-500 km away from the Mumbai city, so no direct impact is expected over the city. Between 16- 18th May, light rains/ thundershowers possible over Mumbai and MMR region. Few spells may be moderate in nature. Nothing to worry a lot. Next few days, maximum temperature is likely to climb due to easterly winds brought by the system. Leading to warm and humid weather. Only issues for strong winds as Gusty Winds to remain between 35-50 kmph, mainly over coast and South Mumbai. Winds will be more than rains for sure. Worries are only for wind speed. Rains & winds will be felt more in Colaba than in Thane.

Gujarat

17- 19 MAY

Cyclone will pass Gujarat coast more closely than any other state and even make landfall over it. So moderate to heavy rains with isolated very heavy rains possible over Saurashtra and Kutch region of Gujarat. Other parts of state will mainly witness light to moderate showers. Coastline should be prepared for very strong winds.

📣Fishermen are advised to not visit the coast during the same time period as the cyclone will be triggering heavy winds and tidal waves.

Gusting of 60-80 kmph possible in the state.

Post landfall analysis are under observation. I will try to post shortly as more things get clear.

More updates to follow as we get final conclusion on landfall place and timings.

Thanks for reading the blog 🙏