Monsoon turns Active over Northwest India

Active Monsoon trough bought moderate- heavy rains over foothills of Uttar Pradesh today's morning.

Rainfall amount ending 11.30am of 17 July:-

Bahraich: 79mm

Gorakhpur: 51mm

Patchy storms can be spotted over parts of Haryana now.

More action likely to spread into rest parts of NW India.

Weather Features:-

👉 Active Western and eastern arm of Monsoon Trough

👉 Trough induced Cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh/ South Uttar Pradesh, moving into Haryana/ Northeast Rajasthan. Both scenarios discussed below 🔽

👉 Western arm of trough activating on 19th night till 20th July. So most active period of this spell to be on 19-20 July.

🌧️ There will be intense developments over North Pakistan on 19/20/21 July, Will move into  Jammu Kashmir, North Punjab.

🌧️ Hilly states to witness moderate-heavy rainfall during the period. Main action in lower hills. Jammu and Sringar both cities in for some good rainfall.

Scenario 1: Development of Trough Circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and moving Haryana

Entire West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, Haryana and East Punjab will see good heavy widespread rains.

Scenario 2: Development of Trough Circulation over North Madhya Pradesh adj South Uttar Pradesh

Entire Agra- Jaipur belt ie South Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan to witness good downpours.

So this circulation going to matters the most, it will decide which places going to see heaviest rains

Forecast:-

Uttar Pradesh

♦️ Moderate- heavy rainfall likely over many areas of East Uttar Pradesh. Waterlogging possible with some very heavy rains on 17-19. July

♦️ Moderate- very heavy rains over entire foothills of Uttar Pradesh on 18-19 July. Flooding rains likely ⚠️

♦️ South Uttar Pradesh (Bundelkhand) to witness mainly patchy light to moderate thunderstorms between 18-20 July.

♦️ West Uttar Pradesh likely to witness mainly light to moderate showers with heavy rains at 30% areas.

♦️ Maximum Temperature drops below 30°c

Delhi NCR

♦️ Thunderstorms activities to begin in parts of Delhi NCR from morning/noon of 18th.

♦️ Spread and intensity to increase on 19-20 July.

Light to moderate rains at 60-80% places at a time.

♦️ Heavy rainfall possible upto 25-50% places.

♦️ Maximum Temperature to drop down below/ around 30°c on 19-20 July.

Rajasthan

♦️ East Rajasthan will see moderate- heavy rains at 50-80% places, with very heavy rains upto 25% places.

♦️ South and West Rajasthan will see mainly patchy light- moderate rainfall in 25% places.

♦️ North and Northwest Rajasthan to witness patchy rainfall at 25-50% places. But rains will be intense wherever clouds form.

♦️ East Rajasthan max temperature range: 32-36°c.

West Rajasthan max temperature: 28- 33°c.

Haryana

♦️ 60-90% areas of South, east and North Haryana to witness moderate- heavy rains. Very heavy rains also possible near foothills of North Haryana starting on 18th afternoon/ late evening.

♦️ 25-50% areas in West Haryana to see light to moderate rains (heavy showers at one/two places) on 19-20 July.

♦️ Maximum Temperature to drop below 32°c at most parts of Haryana on 19-20 July.

Punjab, Chandigarh

♦️ 50-75% areas of East Punjab and Chandigarh, foothills to see moderate- heavy rains/ thundershowers. East Punjab may also brace for some very heavy rains at some pockets.

♦️ Light- moderate rains likely over west and South Punjab over 25-75% places. Heavy rainfall in 30% places.

♦️ North Pak system will also affect North Punjab and upto central Punjab. These will be intense thundestorms.

♦️ Maximum temperature to drop below 30°c at many places. Cool!!

👉 As said, position of Trough and Trough Low will decide the major rainfall. So Quantum may change over places unlike forecast.

👉 Thunderstorms will be intense in nature, wherever they forms it will POUR!

👉 Clouds development will give the real picture of rainfall Quantum. To be covered in nowcast...

👉 Post 20 July analysis to be updated later