Monsoon Advances over North- Northwest India

After a delayed response by Monsoon, conditions becoming favourable for Monsoon Onset for rest remaining parts of Northwest India.

Monsoon Arrival Dates!!

11-12 July: Remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, East Haryana, Central east Punjab and some parts of East Rajasthan.

12-14 July: Rest parts of Haryana, Punjab and East Rajasthan, some parts of North Rajasthan.

14-16 July: West Rajasthan

(Note: Please consider the error margin of ±1 days for Monsoon Onset dates)

Its going to be almost a month gap that monsoon has not advanced. It is still from 13 June.

Forecast!!

Weather Features:-

• A fresh Low Pressure area is expected to brew over Bay of Bengal. Thus strengthening easterlies.

• Generally west arm of monsoon trough moves to central India whenever a LPA develops.

• This time a weak WD is also expected to arrive Northern hills by 11 July. So it will make the western arm to remain connected over plains of Northwest India.

• Active Trough.

Outlook:-

👉 During the period of 11- 15 July, entire hilly region of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir to witness heavy- very heavy downpours. Some isolated places may accumulate extreme heavy rains during the same period.

👉 10-11 July

✓ Light to moderate Rains and thundershowers activity starts over 20-50% areas of West- Central Uttar Pradesh, East Haryana, Delhi NCR. Some places to skip. Activities will be patchy in nature today ie 10July.

✓ Standing clouds formations to be observed over North Rajasthan, adjoining West Haryana and SW Punjab today's afternoon- evening.

👉 12- 14 July

✓ Peak period of this spell.

✓ Moderate- heavy rains over 50- 75% areas of West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and areas of East Rajasthan as well.

20-25% areas may skip the spell in one go.

✓ 10-40 % areas of East Uttar Pradesh to witness mainly light- moderate rains; isolated intense spells.

✓ Foothill areas of Haryana and foothills of Uttar Pradesh may see intense downpours.

👉 15- 16 July

✓ Activities won't subdue completely.

✓ 10-50% isolated- scattered areas of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan (including West Rajasthan) will continue to see light rains/ TS activities.

♦️ Peak intensity and spread on 12/13 July.

♦️ High going Temperatures to come under check till next midweek and so, with clouding, rains and easterlies blowing.

Huge heat temperature relief!!

♦️ Potential waterlogging in city low lying areas, following heavy spell. Power outage in some parts.

♦️ After heavy rains, water filled fields possible in rural areas.

♦️ Risk of landslides over hills of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh possible with heavy accumulation. Power outage possible, risk of high levels of flowing waters in rivers.

🌧️ Since these rains will be monsoon associated, so even low level clouds and blue patches on radar (indicating weak clouds) can produce light decent showers.

🌧️ All places may not cover in entire one go, but since it is 3-4 days long spell, every area shall get covered with rains.

Above analysis are just rough estimation, rain accumulation will vary from place to place with formation of clouds.

RAINS RAINS COME ON AND POUR! FARMERS AWAITING!!

Published on: 10 July

By- Ansh Bhardwaj