MAUSAM: NORTH INDIA

Active Monsoon trough bought moderate- heavy rains over foothills of Uttar Pradesh today's morning. Rainfall amount ending 11.30am of 17 July:- Bahraich: 79mm Gorakhpur: 51mm Patchy storms can be spotted over parts of Haryana now. More action likely to spread into rest parts of NW India. Weather Features:- 👉 Active Western and eastern arm of Monsoon Trough 👉 Trough induced Cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh/ South Uttar Pradesh, moving into Haryana/ Northeast Rajasthan. Both scenarios discussed below 🔽 👉 Western arm of trough activating on 19th night till 20th July. So most active period of this spell to be on 19-20 July. 🌧️ There will be intense developments over North Pakistan on 19/20/21 July, Will move into  Jammu Kashmir, North Punjab. 🌧️ Hilly states to witness moderate-heavy rainfall during the period. Main action in lower hills. Jammu and Sringar both cities in for some good rainfall. Scenario 1: Development of Trough Circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and

After a delayed response by Monsoon, conditions becoming favourable for Monsoon Onset for rest remaining parts of Northwest India. Monsoon Arrival Dates!! 11-12 July : Remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, East Haryana, Central east Punjab and some parts of East Rajasthan. 12-14 July : Rest parts of Haryana, Punjab and East Rajasthan, some parts of North Rajasthan. 14-16 July : West Rajasthan (Note: Please consider the error margin of ±1 days for Monsoon Onset dates) Its going to be almost a month gap that monsoon has not advanced. It is still from 13 June. Forecast!! Weather Features:- • A fresh Low Pressure area is expected to brew over Bay of Bengal. Thus strengthening easterlies . • Generally west arm of monsoon trough moves to central India whenever a LPA develops. • This time a weak WD is also expected to arrive Northern hills by 11 July. So it will make the western arm to remain connected over plains of Northwest India. • Active Trough . Outlook:- 👉 During the peri