MODERATELY ACTIVE WD TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER HILLS & RAINS, HAILSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PLAINS!!!

HEADNOTE: Highlighted TEXT shows specific region, so for the ease of readers.

It have been a long gap since 6 Jan, that NW India has not seen any major rainfall activity.

★Now conditions seems to change as a Moderate category Western Disturbance is approaching Western Himalayan region tomorrow. From tomorrow itself western parts of Jammu and Kashmir will start receiving light rains and snowfall. The hilly region from JammuKahmir to Uttrakhand will witness snowfall till 5th evening or till 6th February.

➝ Peak activity from the following system expected on 4th February to 5th February morning hours.

➝ Uttrakhand and Himachal Pradesh to witness more rains and snow, this time

➝ Famous hill stations and tourist spots like Shimla, Manali, Kedarnath, Badrinath and Uttarkashi likely to catch moderate- heavy snowfall and rains.

Rainfall accumulation map is as follows:-

HOW ACTIVITIES WILL START!

3rd February

★From 3rd February morning, rains & snowfall will increase over J&K, Himachal Pradesh and over few parts of Northern Punjab. 

★By afternoon of 3rd, a cyclonic circulation (as shown in pic below) will get induced over North Rajasthan, leading to flow of moisture laden easterlies into plains. Hence, Clouding will increase over major parts of plains. By evening, rains will start increasing in many parts of Punjab, Haryana and Northwest Rajasthan. Thunderclouds will develop over Northwest Rajasthan, near border region, and will keep on moving towards Punjab and Haryana overnight. Some rain bands might reach NCR into night.

850 hPa Winds shows cyclonic circulation over NW Rajasthan

★By night moderate heavy snowfall possible in many places of Kashmir region, specially south Kashmir.

4th - 6th February

★Fresh formations will start developing over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan, Delhi NCR, West & central Uttar Pradesh from 4th morning. Light- moderate thundershowers, accompanied with gusty winds of 15- 30 kmph, hailstorms; lightning strikes possible at 70-100% places of Punjab, Haryana, North/ East Rajasthan, Delhi NCR and West Uttar Pradesh. Few stations might record intense showers as well. Activities to continue till 5th evening. 

⚠️ Hailstorm may damage standing crops in the fields, necessary precautions to be taken by farmers.

★Between 4- 6 February, Many parts of Uttrakhand and Himachal Pradesh likely to dump with  Moderate to Heavy rains and snowfall with isolated very heavy snow as well. Many stations in Uttrakhand to witness this season's first snowfall.

⚠️ Heavy snowfall over Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand between 3-5 February may led to closure of roads, highways, landslides, mudslides possible. Take care.

6th - 7th February

★Rain zone will shift into more parts of Uttar Pradesh (east) , Bihar, East MP, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, parts of West Bengal between 5-6 February. Light showers possible in these parts. Hails possible in one/ two pockets. Spread to be scattered. 25- 50 % areas to be covered. Some places may remain dry. Clouding to increase in the region.

⚠️ Cloud to ground lightning may take place over parts of  East UP and Bihar, so take shelter as you hear first thunder sound.

TEMPERATURE UPDATE

★Due to the upcoming system, minimum temperature to increase and come in/close double figures across NW India. So coldwave condition to abate. Maximums will see a dip, thus coming between 15- 22 ํ C from Punjab to Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

☛Updates/ Nowcasts will be given on handle about WD and fresh thunder formations.

Thanks for reading my first blog , hope you all enjoyed reading!