MAUSAM: NORTH INDIA

After a delayed response by Monsoon, conditions becoming favourable for Monsoon Onset for rest remaining parts of Northwest India. Monsoon Arrival Dates!! 11-12 July : Remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, East Haryana, Central east Punjab and some parts of East Rajasthan. 12-14 July : Rest parts of Haryana, Punjab and East Rajasthan, some parts of North Rajasthan. 14-16 July : West Rajasthan (Note: Please consider the error margin of ±1 days for Monsoon Onset dates) Its going to be almost a month gap that monsoon has not advanced. It is still from 13 June. Forecast!! Weather Features:- • A fresh Low Pressure area is expected to brew over Bay of Bengal. Thus strengthening easterlies . • Generally west arm of monsoon trough moves to central India whenever a LPA develops. • This time a weak WD is also expected to arrive Northern hills by 11 July. So it will make the western arm to remain connected over plains of Northwest India. • Active Trough . Outlook:- 👉 During the peri

  Yesterday a low pressure brewed up in waters of Southeast Arabian Sea, near Lakshadweep islands. It has further intensified into a Well Marked Low Pressure today's morning and likely to convert into deep depression by tomorrow's morning. Between 15th morning- 16th noon, rapid intensification of the system is likely due to favourable MJO conditions. System will turn into a cyclone further. Currently it is at "Depression" stage. "Tauktae" name is given by Myanmar, which in local means 'gecko' (a lizard). It may develop into a severe category cyclone as well. PATH The two major ways in which system is likely to follow the track:- WML this morning and possible paths Forecast track by IMD After intensifying into a cyclonic storm, Tauktae is likely to move parallel along the  west coast  in N/NW direction. The landfall of the cyclone is still unclear. But most of the models using these two tracks:- 1. Hitting Gujarat coast and then recurving  into N

  NORTHERN HILLS Successive WESTERN DISTURBANCES likely to dump moderate rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, light  to moderate rains to occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand . Higher reaches of hills can expect snowfall. First WD is expected to affect hills from today and is in action now, Second one is expected in early next week. NORTHWEST PLAINS WHEN   Rainfall activities likely to start from late tonight in parts of Rajsthan and Punjab mentioned below. Tomorrow morning till tomorrow night, spread and intensity to increase in more areas of Punjab, Haryana, North/east Rajasthan, West & South Uttar Pradesh, North and east Madhya Pradesh. Parts of central Uttar Pradesh likely to receive short light shower spell between 12th night - 13th early morning. WHAT TO EXPECT Northwest plains of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh may expect dust storms, thunderstorms, light to moderate rains accompanied with gusty winds of 50-70 kmph, hails, at some plac

  Western Disturbance that gave light to moderate rains over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh has now moved away, leading to clear and sunny weather. This system has improved the rain deficiency over east Uttar Pradesh, Himachal and Uttrakhand. WD SUMMARY (3- 5 February) * Cheif Precipitation amount HILLS                                                           ▶️ Gulmarg: 16 mm              ▶️ Qazi Gund: 15.2 mm          ▶️ Srinagar: 4 mm                  ▶️ Dharmsala: 14 mm         ▶️ Shimla: 54 mm                         ▶️ Manali: 22 mm                         ▶️ Dehradun: 20.8 mm               ▶️ Tehri: 20.2 mm                      ▶️ Bhuntar: 18 mm                   ▶️ Mukteshwar: 12 mm                                                                   PLAINS ▶️ Ludhiana: 5 mm      ▶️ Patiala: 1.5 mm ▶️ Ambala: 25 mm ▶️ Chandigarh: 7 mm ▶️ Karnal: 20 mm ▶️ Rohtak: 1 mm ▶️ Delhi: 2.6 mm ▶️ Bareilly: 5 mm ▶️ Meerut: 4 mm  ▶️ L

HEADNOTE: Highlighted TEXT shows specific region, so for the ease of readers. It have been a long gap since 6 Jan, that NW India has not seen any major rainfall activity. ★ Now conditions seems to change as a Moderate category Western Disturbance is approaching  Western Himalayan region tomorrow. From tomorrow itself western parts of Jammu and Kashmir will start receiving light rains and snowfall. The hilly region from JammuKahmir to Uttrakhand will witness snowfall till 5th evening or till 6th February. ➝ Peak activity from the following system expected on 4th February to 5th February morning hours. ➝ Uttrakhand and Himachal Pradesh to witness more rains and snow, this time ➝ Famous hill stations and tourist spots like Shimla, Manali, Kedarnath, Badrinath and Uttarkashi likely to catch moderate- heavy snowfall and rains. Rainfall accumulation map is as follows:- HOW ACTIVITIES WILL START! 3rd February ★ From 3rd February morning, rains & snowfall will increase over J&K, Hima